Bitcoin Price Update Today.
welcome to another update video about Bitcoin. Bitcoin quiet
today very very slight upside today. let's see if it pushes a little higher it
might break micro resistance if it carries on much more than that but it would
not change the over all assumption on the chart.
if anything breaks then I will always give you update later
anyway or if you want to be upto date then check out our gold membership. if
wave counts change we will always update as soon as possible on Discord and
telegram for Gold members any updated wave counts that can of course happen you
know on the smallest time frames the smallest wave degrees. they shouldn't
really be seen as too predictive but they are good road maps to understand if we
are still on track to deliver the bigger picture and also you know just to be
aware as soon as possible.
if anything seems a little bit off on the charts and to get
a very early signal that maybe the chart need reinterpretation. but if just a micro resistance
breaks it's not much to there's not much to change anyway usually so we're
going to take a look at that so looking at the bigger picture we don't want to
lose sight of the bigger picture of course. this is the daily Bitcoin chart we are
still very high I mean compared to where
Bitcoin started in November last year right um I mean bitcoin's price nearly
doubled it actually did pretty much double into the July highs.
it's of course lost some of it again we still cannot confirm
that a lasting low has been established still would favor further downside
however we're not out of the out of the woods yet I mean we talked about it on
the smaller timeframes that we would personally prefer here a further move to
the downside in aw x y structure and then the Y wave is an a wave and the B
wave and the c-wave the reason is that any further upside from here would be
less clear it wouldn't give us a very clear path way. there would be a lot of
not confusion but yeah it would be very ambiguous whereas if we go down we finally
could flush this whole thing out it would be fast we would have a wave one in
wave c a wave 2 in wave C Wave 3 is next might have started already Wave 4 and
wave 5.
this would be ideal
and it could take us down maybe to run
about 22k yeah to really give you a good projection of where it would send us
most likely. I can take here the length of the wave then we go to the high of
the B wave and the first relevant projection. I really get is at around 21 890.
if we really start from here this this C wave to the down side I mean it might
have started but within the C wave the third wave it could stretch out further
1.618 extension is at 19k.
but anything below 18K will put us onto the road for new bear
Market lows but we're far away from that and it's nothing I'm primarily watching
for I'm primarily watching for further upside but before that further upside
happens ideally continuation of the move down and then we're waiting somewhere
here for a reversal signal could we have bottomed already yes of course which
is why I've got on this chart.
the wave too low already as alternative yes we could have
bottomed however I cannot confirm it at this stage can't confirm it because we haven't
seen the right structure of those lows at the moment this is only a corrective
move to the upside it might turn into something more bullish it might even turn
into a larger corrective structure. we cannot rule that out we will use the
signal level for that to understand if that's happening our signal level
against which we focus on Lower is basically at 27000 for 80.
It is the September
High okay that's our signal level and even more confirmation we'll get with a
break above the end of August high at basically 28 200 roughly okay so these
are the two key levels against which we focus on Lower when they break they
tell us okay something different is going on but also then what I need to see
to really confirm that a lasting low has been established here we need to see
five waves up and we need to see three waves down then we have the next trade
setup that can set us up for a third wave rally higher.
which can then send
us eventually into this target area between around about 44k and yeah 40 to 50K
very roughly okay but first of all it seems likely that Bitcoin is going to go
a little lower but we're going to talk about that in the when looking at the
shorter time frame as a channel member you have access to all of these trading
view live charts if you're interested so you can check the membership. so we
want to take a look at this now this bit okay. so I zoom in to the one hour 30 minute
charts here we see this swing high that was made in September here this is what
I consider a wave too high okay off the wave C to the downside and now we're
coming down I labeled this as a one two one two setup and we're now basically
or we completed possibly a third wave yesterday.
when the price touched
the 26000 360 level I made you aware of the relevance of that support level and
that it would not be easy to break through so we get this bounce and important
would be that in this in this bounce the price does not get as us tained break
above twenty six thousand eight ten roughly it would first of all break above
the 50 retracement level which is too high for a wave format the moment the
price is getting rejected at the 38.2 retracement which is ideal 26700.
and also it shouldn't get above because then it would cut
into the price region of the wave 1 which is what we want to avoid because then
this impulse will be invalidated downside okay it could then turn into
something different and we can always explore a diagonal my first view then
would be that we probably had here that all of this was a wave one possibly. I
will need to look into this one two then this is off the Wave 3 and a wave a b
wave which can stretch a little higher so it would not be bullish just if we
break micro resistance it would just cause a reinterpretation of the chart.
then a c wave down off wave three then a four and a five so
it would carry on just a little bit different but you can't really say it's
exactly it's this or that it's just that a break above 26000 805 will make us a
ware that something different might be going on here I made you aware that it is
likely to form here an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern sorry that inverse in
actual Head and Shoulders pattern that would be in line with the Elliott wave
count. but if it pushes slightly above resistance bear in mind we talk about a
sustained break above it okay yes invalidation will of course occur of the Wave
4 and wave one if they cut into each other.
but then as I said it
could just be this different wave count that we can just explore on the microlevel
and it would not really make a major change okay it wouldn't so maybe again
this would be a one two just put into a different color here I make it white and
then so this is how the alternative count would probably look like. I might
play around with it but I just want to emphasize to you that just a break above
micro resistance wouldn't necessarily make it much more bullish okay what I
would then want to see to really talk about invalidation of this immediate
downside.
I need to see a break above 27000 250 which is the wave too
high of the smaller degree and then 27480 is still a relevant level yeah and
this B wave would be allowed to push a little higher and I would imagine that
26930 is also key resistance here. we added before here and you know what
maybe to keep it simple I could I don't know let's leave it like that I just I
thought okay do we add the 61.8 retracement here but I leave so this is just
for you to know okay there is an alternative. but it's just it we would just
talk about some microstructure distortions here.
if there are any invalidations at the moment at least okay at the moment this looks like a third a three-wave move it would be ideal now for the price to finish this fourth wave at some point and then to just break down let's see if it's doing that today if it's doing that today we could get away four weekend here this way four on the weekend maybe but we'll see Bitcoin has shown that it is very happy to surprise in recent weeks so that we get a little bit further with surprise action is to be expected that's my update about Bitcoin I hope you like the update.
